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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200210-200212

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
1
0
3
4
5
4
3
12
6
5
7
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
16
13
20
49
5
4
3
12
21
18
24
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
6
6
11
6
0
17
22
28
22
17
67
33
28
39
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
3
25
21
32
78
8
6
5
19
33
29
38
100

hitrate: 0.167 hitrate: 0.254
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 0.80 1.71
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 2.72 0.50
Heidke skill score: -0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.119
true Heidke skill score: -0.298 true Heidke skill score: -0.074
Kuipers skill score: -0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.119
true Kuipers skill score: -0.290 true Kuipers skill score: -0.078
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.188
threat score:
0.000 0.241 0.091
equitable threat score:
-0.091 -0.141 -0.147
equitable threat score:
-0.030 -0.025 -0.055
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.429
probability of detection:
0.000 0.722 0.125
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.735 0.750
samples: 18 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 28.57 %coverage: 100.00