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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200210-200212

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
2
5
0
1
3
4
1
0
0
1
4
1
5
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
2
5
17
18
22
57
1
0
0
1
21
18
24
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
30
0
20
50
0
10
30
40
10
0
0
10
40
10
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
3
8
27
29
35
90
2
0
0
2
33
29
38
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.25 4.00 0.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.24 3.17 0.04
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: 0.155 true Heidke skill score: 0.060
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: 0.190 true Kuipers skill score: 0.064
threat score:
0.500 0.250 0.000
threat score:
0.130 0.316 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.250 0.167 -0.091
equitable threat score:
0.062 0.042 -0.015
probability of detection:
0.750 1.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.143 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.750 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.684 1.000
samples: 10 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 15.87 %coverage: 100.00