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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200211-200301

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
5
1
7
3
3
1
7
6
2
1
9
10
10
3
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
5
1
7
32
13
2
47
6
2
1
9
39
20
4
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
22
4
30
13
13
4
30
26
9
4
39
43
43
13
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
8
2
11
51
21
3
75
10
3
2
14
62
32
6
100

hitrate: 0.217 hitrate: 0.238
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.70 0.70 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.18 2.35 2.25
Heidke skill score: -0.174 Heidke skill score: -0.143
true Heidke skill score: -0.144 true Heidke skill score: -0.112
Kuipers skill score: -0.174 Kuipers skill score: -0.143
true Kuipers skill score: -0.162 true Kuipers skill score: -0.150
threat score:
0.062 0.214 0.091
threat score:
0.022 0.241 0.083
equitable threat score:
-0.158 -0.004 -0.018
equitable threat score:
-0.082 -0.049 0.038
probability of detection:
0.100 0.300 0.333
probability of detection:
0.026 0.650 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.857 0.571 0.889
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.857 0.723 0.889
samples: 23 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 36.51 %coverage: 100.00