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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200211-200301

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
5
2
1
8
2
2
0
4
7
5
2
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
37
17
3
57
2
2
0
4
39
20
4
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
7
7
14
36
14
7
57
14
14
0
29
50
36
14
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
3
59
27
5
90
3
3
0
6
62
32
6
100

hitrate: 0.143 hitrate: 0.270
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.29 1.60 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 2.85 1.00
Heidke skill score: -0.286 Heidke skill score: -0.095
true Heidke skill score: -0.254 true Heidke skill score: -0.060
Kuipers skill score: -0.286 Kuipers skill score: -0.095
true Kuipers skill score: -0.288 true Kuipers skill score: -0.080
threat score:
0.000 0.182 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.283 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.125 -0.105 -0.105
equitable threat score:
-0.031 -0.026 -0.033
probability of detection:
0.000 0.400 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.850 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.750 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.702 1.000
samples: 14 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 22.22 %coverage: 100.00