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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200211-200301

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
0
6
3
5
1
9
2
1
0
3
9
8
1
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
0
6
33
17
4
54
2
1
0
3
39
20
4
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
22
11
0
33
17
28
6
50
11
6
0
17
50
44
6
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
3
0
10
52
27
6
86
3
2
0
5
62
32
6
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 1.12 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.15 2.70 0.75
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: 0.169 true Heidke skill score: -0.001
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: 0.185 true Kuipers skill score: -0.001
threat score:
0.364 0.417 0.000
threat score:
0.098 0.298 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.125 0.125 -0.043
equitable threat score:
0.008 -0.004 -0.028
probability of detection:
0.444 0.625 0.000
probability of detection:
0.103 0.850 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.444 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.685 1.000
samples: 18 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 28.57 %coverage: 100.00