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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200211-200301

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
3
1
4
13
6
1
20
13
10
2
25

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
26
13
3
42
13
6
1
20
39
20
4
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
0
4
0
12
4
16
52
24
4
80
52
40
8
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
41
21
5
67
21
10
2
32
62
32
6
100

hitrate: 0.160 hitrate: 0.222
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 0.40 10.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 2.10 5.00
Heidke skill score: -0.260 Heidke skill score: -0.167
true Heidke skill score: 0.013 true Heidke skill score: -0.026
Kuipers skill score: -0.260 Kuipers skill score: -0.167
true Kuipers skill score: 0.020 true Kuipers skill score: -0.038
threat score:
0.000 0.273 0.048
threat score:
0.000 0.265 0.043
equitable threat score:
-0.039 0.149 -0.031
equitable threat score:
-0.016 -0.009 -0.012
probability of detection:
0.000 0.300 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.650 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.250 0.950
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.690 0.950
samples: 25 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 39.68 %coverage: 100.00