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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200212-200302

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
5
3
11
1
3
1
5
2
7
4
13
6
15
8
29

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
5
3
11
21
11
6
38
2
7
4
13
26
23
13
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
17
10
38
3
10
3
17
7
24
14
45
21
52
28
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
8
5
18
34
18
10
61
3
11
6
21
42
37
21
100

hitrate: 0.345 hitrate: 0.290
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.83 0.33 1.62
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.42 1.65 1.00
Heidke skill score: 0.017 Heidke skill score: -0.065
true Heidke skill score: 0.076 true Heidke skill score: -0.085
Kuipers skill score: 0.017 Kuipers skill score: -0.065
true Kuipers skill score: 0.087 true Kuipers skill score: -0.086
threat score:
0.214 0.176 0.235
threat score:
0.088 0.220 0.182
equitable threat score:
0.062 0.029 0.031
equitable threat score:
-0.055 -0.086 0.066
probability of detection:
0.500 0.200 0.500
probability of detection:
0.115 0.478 0.308
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.727 0.400 0.692
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.727 0.711 0.692
samples: 29 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 46.77 %coverage: 100.00