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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200212-200302

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
5
2
10
1
2
3
6
5
5
2
12
9
12
7
28

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
5
2
10
18
13
9
40
5
5
2
12
26
23
13
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
18
7
36
4
7
11
21
18
18
7
43
32
43
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
8
3
16
29
21
15
65
8
8
3
19
42
37
21
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.290
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.11 0.50 1.71
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.38 1.74 0.92
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: -0.065
true Heidke skill score: -0.093 true Heidke skill score: -0.088
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: -0.065
true Kuipers skill score: -0.098 true Kuipers skill score: -0.089
threat score:
0.188 0.125 0.118
threat score:
0.091 0.260 0.087
equitable threat score:
-0.017 -0.043 -0.071
equitable threat score:
-0.041 -0.052 -0.025
probability of detection:
0.333 0.167 0.286
probability of detection:
0.115 0.565 0.154
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.700 0.667 0.833
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.700 0.675 0.833
samples: 28 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 45.16 %coverage: 100.00