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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200212-200302

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
2
6
5
13
3
4
1
8
6
11
6
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
22
18
12
52
3
4
1
8
26
23
13
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
4
0
9
9
26
22
57
13
17
4
35
26
48
26
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
3
35
29
19
84
5
6
2
13
42
37
21
100

hitrate: 0.348 hitrate: 0.323
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 1.18 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 2.26 0.62
Heidke skill score: 0.022 Heidke skill score: -0.016
true Heidke skill score: -0.058 true Heidke skill score: -0.045
Kuipers skill score: 0.022 Kuipers skill score: -0.016
true Kuipers skill score: -0.057 true Kuipers skill score: -0.045
threat score:
0.143 0.333 0.077
threat score:
0.037 0.316 0.050
equitable threat score:
0.074 -0.018 -0.100
equitable threat score:
0.006 -0.034 -0.037
probability of detection:
0.167 0.545 0.167
probability of detection:
0.038 0.783 0.077
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.538 0.875
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.654 0.875
samples: 23 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 37.10 %coverage: 100.00