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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200212-200302

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
5
3
13
3
5
1
9
0
1
1
2
8
11
5
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
5
3
13
21
17
9
47
0
1
1
2
26
23
13
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
21
21
13
54
13
21
4
38
0
4
4
8
33
46
21
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
8
5
21
34
27
15
76
0
2
2
3
42
37
21
100

hitrate: 0.458 hitrate: 0.371
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.62 0.82 0.40
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 2.04 0.15
Heidke skill score: 0.188 Heidke skill score: 0.056
true Heidke skill score: 0.140 true Heidke skill score: -0.008
Kuipers skill score: 0.187 Kuipers skill score: 0.056
true Kuipers skill score: 0.139 true Kuipers skill score: -0.008
threat score:
0.312 0.333 0.167
threat score:
0.147 0.321 0.071
equitable threat score:
0.057 0.080 0.104
equitable threat score:
-0.016 -0.012 0.043
probability of detection:
0.625 0.455 0.200
probability of detection:
0.192 0.739 0.077
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.615 0.444 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.615 0.638 0.500
samples: 24 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 38.71 %coverage: 100.00