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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200301-200303

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
1
3
2
3
2
7
11
4
5
20
13
9
8
30

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
1
3
23
13
4
40
11
4
5
20
34
19
10
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
7
3
10
7
10
7
23
37
13
17
67
43
30
27
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
2
5
37
21
6
63
17
6
8
32
54
30
16
100

hitrate: 0.267 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.23 0.78 2.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.09 2.11 2.00
Heidke skill score: -0.100 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: -0.034 true Heidke skill score: 0.025
Kuipers skill score: -0.100 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: -0.038 true Kuipers skill score: 0.031
threat score:
0.000 0.231 0.217
threat score:
0.000 0.283 0.200
equitable threat score:
-0.088 0.083 -0.019
equitable threat score:
-0.046 0.028 0.084
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.625
probability of detection:
0.000 0.684 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.571 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.675 0.750
samples: 30 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 47.62 %coverage: 100.00