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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200301-200303

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
5
1
3
9
8
7
4
19
14
9
7
30

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
25
11
6
42
8
7
4
19
34
19
10
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
3
0
7
17
3
10
30
27
23
13
63
47
30
23
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
3
40
17
10
67
13
11
6
30
54
30
16
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.254
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 1.00 2.71
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 2.21 1.90
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.119
true Heidke skill score: -0.094 true Heidke skill score: -0.016
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.119
true Kuipers skill score: -0.108 true Kuipers skill score: -0.020
threat score:
0.067 0.059 0.182
threat score:
0.029 0.220 0.160
equitable threat score:
0.005 -0.119 -0.025
equitable threat score:
-0.002 -0.045 0.045
probability of detection:
0.071 0.111 0.571
probability of detection:
0.029 0.579 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.889 0.789
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.738 0.789
samples: 30 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 47.62 %coverage: 100.00