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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200301-200303

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
3
6
2
11
7
2
5
14
12
8
7
27

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
25
17
5
47
7
2
5
14
34
19
10
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
0
0
7
11
22
7
41
26
7
19
52
44
30
26
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
40
27
8
75
11
3
8
22
54
30
16
100

hitrate: 0.481 hitrate: 0.381
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.17 1.38 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 2.47 1.40
Heidke skill score: 0.222 Heidke skill score: 0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.272 true Heidke skill score: 0.143
Kuipers skill score: 0.222 Kuipers skill score: 0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.299 true Kuipers skill score: 0.175
threat score:
0.167 0.462 0.312
threat score:
0.059 0.347 0.263
equitable threat score:
0.100 0.281 0.111
equitable threat score:
0.028 0.081 0.166
probability of detection:
0.167 0.750 0.714
probability of detection:
0.059 0.895 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.455 0.643
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.638 0.643
samples: 27 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 42.86 %coverage: 100.00