CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 200301-200303

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
6
1
1
8
3
4
4
11
9
6
6
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
31
14
5
50
3
4
4
11
34
19
10
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
5
10
29
5
5
38
14
19
19
52
43
29
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
3
49
22
8
79
5
6
6
17
54
30
16
100

hitrate: 0.238 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.22 1.33 1.83
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 2.63 1.10
Heidke skill score: -0.143 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: -0.087 true Heidke skill score: 0.002
Kuipers skill score: -0.143 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: -0.094 true Kuipers skill score: 0.003
threat score:
0.000 0.077 0.308
threat score:
0.000 0.255 0.235
equitable threat score:
-0.085 -0.120 0.087
equitable threat score:
-0.031 -0.027 0.148
probability of detection:
0.000 0.167 0.667
probability of detection:
0.000 0.737 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.875 0.636
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.720 0.636
samples: 21 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 33.33 %coverage: 100.00