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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199502-199504

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
2
5
0
3
2
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
23
28
51
0
3
2
5
0
26
30
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
40
100
0
60
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
41
50
91
0
5
4
9
0
46
54
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.446
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 2.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.96 0.17
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.170
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.046
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.170
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.049
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.400
threat score:
0.000 0.426 0.061
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.022 -0.022
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.885 0.067
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.549 0.600
samples: 5 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 8.93 %coverage: 100.00