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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199503-199505

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
1
1
5
3
1
1
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
8
22
21
51
3
1
1
5
11
23
22
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
20
20
100
60
20
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
14
39
38
91
5
2
2
9
20
41
39
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.411
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 5.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.22 0.23
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: 0.116
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.003
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: 0.116
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.002
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.200
threat score:
0.000 0.423 0.038
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.034 -0.040
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.957 0.045
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.569 0.800
samples: 5 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 8.93 %coverage: 100.00