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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199503-199505

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
3
2
0
5
0
1
0
1
3
5
0
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
11
20
22
53
0
1
0
1
11
23
22
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
25
0
25
38
25
0
63
0
13
0
13
38
63
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
0
4
20
36
39
95
0
2
0
2
20
41
39
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.357
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 1.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.18 2.30 0.05
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.036
true Heidke skill score: -0.455 true Heidke skill score: -0.076
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.036
true Kuipers skill score: -0.500 true Kuipers skill score: -0.071
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.357 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.176 -0.231 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.031 -0.052 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.000 0.400 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.870 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.600 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.623 1.000
samples: 8 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 14.29 %coverage: 100.00