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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199504-199506

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
1
1
5
3
1
1
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
20
17
14
51
3
1
1
5
23
18
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
20
20
100
60
20
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
36
30
25
91
5
2
2
9
41
32
27
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.321
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 5.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.83 0.33
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.018
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.007
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.018
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.007
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.200
threat score:
0.000 0.327 0.053
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.017 -0.019
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.944 0.067
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.667 0.800
samples: 5 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 8.93 %coverage: 100.00