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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199504-199506

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
4
1
0
5
0
1
0
1
6
2
0
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
21
17
15
53
0
1
0
1
23
18
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
0
0
25
50
13
0
63
0
13
0
13
75
25
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
38
30
27
95
0
2
0
2
41
32
27
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.339
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 2.50 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.09 2.94 0.07
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: 0.009
true Heidke skill score: 0.048 true Heidke skill score: 0.023
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: 0.009
true Kuipers skill score: 0.083 true Kuipers skill score: 0.024
threat score:
0.333 0.167 0.000
threat score:
0.087 0.315 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.111 -0.053 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.053 -0.001 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.333 0.500 0.000
probability of detection:
0.087 0.944 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.800 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.679 1.000
samples: 8 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 14.29 %coverage: 100.00