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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199504-199506

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
2
5
16
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
9
4
5
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
2
5
16
14
15
10
39
0
1
0
1
23
18
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
50
11
28
89
0
6
0
6
0
6
0
6
50
22
28
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
4
9
29
25
27
18
70
0
2
0
2
41
32
27
100

hitrate: 0.556 hitrate: 0.429
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.78 0.25 0.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.70 2.17 0.07
Heidke skill score: 0.333 Heidke skill score: 0.143
true Heidke skill score: 0.158 true Heidke skill score: 0.126
Kuipers skill score: 0.333 Kuipers skill score: 0.143
true Kuipers skill score: 0.134 true Kuipers skill score: 0.126
threat score:
0.562 0.250 0.000
threat score:
0.300 0.357 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.125 0.206 -0.049
equitable threat score:
0.104 0.084 -0.017
probability of detection:
1.000 0.250 0.000
probability of detection:
0.391 0.833 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.438 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.438 0.615 1.000
samples: 18 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 32.14 %coverage: 100.00