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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199505-199507

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
2
5
3
0
2
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
15
15
21
51
3
0
2
5
18
15
23
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
40
100
60
0
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
27
27
38
91
5
0
4
9
32
27
41
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.304
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 -- 2.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.40 0.22
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: -0.045
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.032
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: -0.045
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.035
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.400
threat score:
0.000 0.294 0.077
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.036 -0.002
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.087
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.706 0.600
samples: 5 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 8.93 %coverage: 100.00