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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199505-199507

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
4
1
0
5
0
0
1
1
6
1
1
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
16
15
22
53
0
0
1
1
18
15
23
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
0
0
25
50
13
0
63
0
0
13
13
75
13
13
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
29
27
39
95
0
0
2
2
32
27
41
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.321
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 5.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 3.53 0.04
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.018
true Heidke skill score: 0.304 true Heidke skill score: 0.067
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.018
true Kuipers skill score: 0.538 true Kuipers skill score: 0.075
threat score:
0.333 0.200 1.000
threat score:
0.111 0.283 0.043
equitable threat score:
0.111 0.086 1.000
equitable threat score:
0.078 0.021 0.026
probability of detection:
0.333 1.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.111 1.000 0.043
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.800 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.717 0.000
samples: 8 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 14.29 %coverage: 100.00