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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199505-199507

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
4
6
16
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
6
4
8
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
4
6
16
12
11
16
39
0
0
1
1
18
15
23
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
22
33
89
0
0
6
6
0
0
6
6
33
22
44
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
7
11
29
21
20
29
70
0
0
2
2
32
27
41
100

hitrate: 0.389 hitrate: 0.321
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.67 0.25 0.12
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.89 2.60 0.04
Heidke skill score: 0.083 Heidke skill score: -0.018
true Heidke skill score: 0.083 true Heidke skill score: 0.050
Kuipers skill score: 0.083 Kuipers skill score: -0.018
true Kuipers skill score: 0.087 true Kuipers skill score: 0.054
threat score:
0.375 0.000 0.125
threat score:
0.214 0.256 0.043
equitable threat score:
0.062 -0.047 0.074
equitable threat score:
0.038 0.017 0.026
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.125
probability of detection:
0.333 0.733 0.043
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.625 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.625 0.718 0.000
samples: 18 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 32.14 %coverage: 100.00