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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199506-199508

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
1
5
1
3
1
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
12
10
29
51
1
3
1
5
13
13
30
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
60
20
100
20
60
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
21
18
52
91
2
5
2
9
23
23
54
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.196
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 5.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.92 0.17
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.205
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.085
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.205
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.104
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.200
threat score:
0.000 0.185 0.029
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.044 -0.054
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.769 0.033
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.804 0.800
samples: 5 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 8.93 %coverage: 100.00