CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199506-199508

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
3
2
0
5
0
0
1
1
4
2
2
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
12
13
28
53
0
0
1
1
13
13
30
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
0
13
25
38
25
0
63
0
0
13
13
50
25
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
2
4
21
23
50
95
0
0
2
2
23
23
54
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.268
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 2.50 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.15 4.08 0.03
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.098
true Heidke skill score: 0.273 true Heidke skill score: 0.040
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.098
true Kuipers skill score: 0.300 true Kuipers skill score: 0.050
threat score:
0.200 0.400 0.500
threat score:
0.071 0.245 0.033
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.200 0.429
equitable threat score:
0.040 0.017 0.016
probability of detection:
0.250 1.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.077 1.000 0.033
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.600 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.755 0.000
samples: 8 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 14.29 %coverage: 100.00