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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199506-199508

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
10
16
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
4
2
12
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
10
16
9
11
19
39
0
0
1
1
13
13
30
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
22
11
56
89
0
0
6
6
0
0
6
6
22
11
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
4
18
29
16
20
34
70
0
0
2
2
23
23
54
100

hitrate: 0.278 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.00 0.50 0.08
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.23 3.00 0.03
Heidke skill score: -0.083 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.049 true Heidke skill score: 0.063
Kuipers skill score: -0.083 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.075 true Kuipers skill score: 0.080
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.083
threat score:
0.160 0.268 0.033
equitable threat score:
0.036 -0.038 0.029
equitable threat score:
0.013 0.061 0.016
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.083
probability of detection:
0.308 0.846 0.033
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.718 0.000
samples: 18 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 32.14 %coverage: 100.00