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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199507-199509

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
1
5
1
3
1
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
17
33
52
1
3
1
5
3
20
34
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
60
20
100
20
60
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
30
58
91
2
5
2
9
5
35
60
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.316
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 5.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.60 0.15
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.026
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.090
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.026
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.109
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.200
threat score:
0.000 0.309 0.026
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.034 -0.057
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.850 0.029
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.673 0.800
samples: 5 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 8.77 %coverage: 100.00