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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199507-199509

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
1
4
1
6
0
1
0
1
1
6
2
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
3
18
33
54
0
1
0
1
3
20
34
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
11
11
22
11
44
11
67
0
11
0
11
11
67
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
4
5
32
58
95
0
2
0
2
5
35
60
100

hitrate: 0.444 hitrate: 0.316
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 1.00 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 2.70 0.03
Heidke skill score: 0.167 Heidke skill score: -0.026
true Heidke skill score: -0.098 true Heidke skill score: -0.044
Kuipers skill score: 0.167 Kuipers skill score: -0.026
true Kuipers skill score: -0.100 true Kuipers skill score: -0.056
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.321 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.080 0.000 -0.080
equitable threat score:
-0.022 -0.026 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.900 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.333 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.667 1.000
samples: 9 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 15.79 %coverage: 100.00