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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199507-199509

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
11
16
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
2
3
13
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
11
16
1
17
22
40
0
0
1
1
3
20
34
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
17
61
89
0
0
6
6
0
0
6
6
11
17
72
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
5
19
28
2
30
39
70
0
0
2
2
5
35
60
100

hitrate: 0.167 hitrate: 0.351
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
8.00 0.33 0.08
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.33 2.00 0.03
Heidke skill score: -0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.026
true Heidke skill score: 0.022 true Heidke skill score: 0.109
Kuipers skill score: -0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.026
true Kuipers skill score: 0.042 true Kuipers skill score: 0.153
threat score:
0.125 0.000 0.077
threat score:
0.118 0.395 0.029
equitable threat score:
0.016 -0.043 0.023
equitable threat score:
0.072 0.102 0.012
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.077
probability of detection:
0.667 0.850 0.029
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.875 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.875 0.575 0.000
samples: 18 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 31.58 %coverage: 100.00