CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199508-199510

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
0
4
2
6
0
1
0
1
0
6
3
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
2
17
34
53
0
1
0
1
2
19
35
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
11
11
22
0
44
22
67
0
11
0
11
0
67
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
4
4
30
61
95
0
2
0
2
4
34
63
100

hitrate: 0.444 hitrate: 0.304
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.00 0.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 2.79 0.03
Heidke skill score: 0.167 Heidke skill score: -0.045
true Heidke skill score: -0.071 true Heidke skill score: -0.045
Kuipers skill score: 0.167 Kuipers skill score: -0.045
true Kuipers skill score: -0.083 true Kuipers skill score: -0.061
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.309 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 -0.091
equitable threat score:
-0.018 -0.027 -0.018
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.895 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.333 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.679 1.000
samples: 9 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 16.07 %coverage: 100.00