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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199508-199510

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
6
9
15
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
6
11
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
6
9
15
2
13
25
40
0
0
1
1
2
19
35
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
35
53
88
0
0
6
6
0
0
6
6
0
35
65
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
11
16
27
4
23
45
71
0
0
2
2
4
34
63
100

hitrate: 0.059 hitrate: 0.250
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.17 0.09
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
7.50 2.11 0.03
Heidke skill score: -0.412 Heidke skill score: -0.125
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.018
Kuipers skill score: -0.412 Kuipers skill score: -0.125
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.027
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.091
threat score:
0.000 0.283 0.029
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.053 0.034
equitable threat score:
-0.033 -0.018 0.011
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.091
probability of detection:
0.000 0.684 0.029
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.675 0.000
samples: 17 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 30.36 %coverage: 100.00