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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199509-199511

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
1
2
3
6
0
1
0
1
1
3
5
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
22
14
17
53
0
1
0
1
22
15
19
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
22
22
11
22
33
67
0
11
0
11
11
33
56
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
4
4
39
25
30
95
0
2
0
2
39
27
34
100

hitrate: 0.222 hitrate: 0.250
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 2.00 0.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.09 3.53 0.05
Heidke skill score: -0.167 Heidke skill score: -0.125
true Heidke skill score: -0.125 true Heidke skill score: -0.032
Kuipers skill score: -0.167 Kuipers skill score: -0.125
true Kuipers skill score: -0.152 true Kuipers skill score: -0.036
threat score:
0.000 0.286 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.259 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.080 0.000 -0.102
equitable threat score:
-0.034 -0.005 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.933 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.667 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.736 1.000
samples: 9 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 16.07 %coverage: 100.00