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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199509-199511

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
2
3
15
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
12
2
3
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
2
3
15
11
13
16
40
1
0
0
1
22
15
19
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
59
12
18
88
6
0
0
6
6
0
0
6
71
12
18
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
18
4
5
27
20
23
29
71
2
0
0
2
39
27
34
100

hitrate: 0.588 hitrate: 0.411
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.25 0.50 0.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.68 2.67 0.05
Heidke skill score: 0.382 Heidke skill score: 0.116
true Heidke skill score: -0.144 true Heidke skill score: 0.155
Kuipers skill score: 0.382 Kuipers skill score: 0.116
true Kuipers skill score: -0.114 true Kuipers skill score: 0.164
threat score:
0.588 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.370 0.310 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.092 -0.041 -0.046
equitable threat score:
0.195 0.073 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.833 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.455 0.867 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.675 1.000
samples: 17 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 30.36 %coverage: 100.00