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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199510-199512

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
5
6
15
4
5
6
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
14
12
15
41
4
5
6
15
18
17
21
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
27
33
40
100
27
33
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
25
21
27
73
7
9
11
27
32
30
38
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.321
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.41 0.71
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: -0.018
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.002
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: -0.018
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.002
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.400
threat score:
0.000 0.261 0.200
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.013 0.015
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.706 0.286
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.707 0.600
samples: 15 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 26.79 %coverage: 100.00