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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199510-199512

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
0
3
3
6
0
1
0
1
0
4
5
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
18
16
19
53
0
1
0
1
18
17
21
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
22
22
0
33
33
67
0
11
0
11
0
44
56
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
4
4
32
29
34
95
0
2
0
2
32
30
38
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.50 0.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 3.12 0.05
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: -0.038 true Heidke skill score: -0.028
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: -0.050 true Kuipers skill score: -0.030
threat score:
0.000 0.429 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.296 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.077 -0.102
equitable threat score:
-0.033 -0.002 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.000 0.750 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.941 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.698 1.000
samples: 9 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 16.07 %coverage: 100.00