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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199510-199512

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
4
3
15
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
10
4
3
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
4
3
15
9
13
18
40
1
0
0
1
18
17
21
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
47
24
18
88
6
0
0
6
6
0
0
6
59
24
18
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
7
5
27
16
23
32
71
2
0
0
2
32
30
38
100

hitrate: 0.471 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 0.25 0.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.83 2.35 0.05
Heidke skill score: 0.206 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: -0.159 true Heidke skill score: 0.095
Kuipers skill score: 0.206 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: -0.128 true Kuipers skill score: 0.098
threat score:
0.471 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.320 0.295 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.101 -0.049 -0.046
equitable threat score:
0.158 0.027 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.800 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.444 0.765 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.467 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.467 0.675 1.000
samples: 17 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 30.36 %coverage: 100.00