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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199511-199601

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
5
10
2
0
1
3
2
0
2
4
7
2
8
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
5
10
18
9
15
42
2
0
2
4
23
11
22
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
18
12
29
59
12
0
6
18
12
0
12
24
41
12
47
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
4
9
18
32
16
27
75
4
0
4
7
41
20
39
100

hitrate: 0.294 hitrate: 0.250
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.43 1.50 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.43 3.82 0.18
Heidke skill score: -0.059 Heidke skill score: -0.125
true Heidke skill score: -0.127 true Heidke skill score: 0.002
Kuipers skill score: -0.059 Kuipers skill score: -0.125
true Kuipers skill score: -0.134 true Kuipers skill score: 0.002
threat score:
0.214 0.000 0.200
threat score:
0.100 0.205 0.083
equitable threat score:
-0.113 -0.076 0.014
equitable threat score:
-0.043 0.021 0.019
probability of detection:
0.429 0.000 0.250
probability of detection:
0.130 0.818 0.091
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.700 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.700 0.786 0.500
samples: 17 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 30.36 %coverage: 100.00