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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199511-199601

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
0
3
3
6
1
0
0
1
1
3
5
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
22
11
20
53
1
0
0
1
23
11
22
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
22
22
0
33
33
67
11
0
0
11
11
33
56
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
4
4
39
20
36
95
2
0
0
2
41
20
39
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.196
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 2.00 0.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.09 4.82 0.05
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.205
true Heidke skill score: 0.036 true Heidke skill score: -0.014
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.205
true Kuipers skill score: 0.043 true Kuipers skill score: -0.017
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.208 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.080 0.250 -0.102
equitable threat score:
-0.034 0.014 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.792 1.000
samples: 9 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 16.07 %coverage: 100.00