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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199511-199601

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
3
3
15
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
11
3
3
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
3
3
15
13
8
19
40
1
0
0
1
23
11
22
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
53
18
18
88
6
0
0
6
6
0
0
6
65
18
18
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
5
5
27
23
14
34
71
2
0
0
2
41
20
39
100

hitrate: 0.529 hitrate: 0.304
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.36 0.33 0.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.65 3.64 0.05
Heidke skill score: 0.294 Heidke skill score: -0.045
true Heidke skill score: -0.153 true Heidke skill score: 0.062
Kuipers skill score: 0.294 Kuipers skill score: -0.045
true Kuipers skill score: -0.120 true Kuipers skill score: 0.072
threat score:
0.529 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.310 0.186 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.097 -0.046 -0.046
equitable threat score:
0.124 0.004 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.818 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.391 0.727 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.800 1.000
samples: 17 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 30.36 %coverage: 100.00