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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199512-199602

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
4
0
4
3
5
1
9
3
9
1
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
26
17
47
3
5
1
9
7
31
18
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
31
0
31
23
38
8
69
23
69
8
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
46
30
84
5
9
2
16
13
55
32
100

hitrate: 0.385 hitrate: 0.482
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.44 9.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.52 0.50
Heidke skill score: 0.077 Heidke skill score: 0.223
true Heidke skill score: 0.161 true Heidke skill score: -0.071
Kuipers skill score: 0.077 Kuipers skill score: 0.223
true Kuipers skill score: 0.256 true Kuipers skill score: -0.059
threat score:
0.000 0.444 0.111
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.038
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.198 0.037
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.001 -0.082
probability of detection:
0.000 0.444 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.839 0.056
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.889
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.447 0.889
samples: 13 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 23.21 %coverage: 100.00