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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199512-199602

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
1
5
0
1
0
1
3
4
0
7
3
9
1
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
1
5
4
23
17
44
3
4
0
7
7
31
18
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
31
8
38
0
8
0
8
23
31
0
54
23
69
8
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
7
2
9
7
41
30
79
5
7
0
13
13
55
32
100

hitrate: 0.077 hitrate: 0.411
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.67 0.11 7.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.71 1.42 0.39
Heidke skill score: -0.385 Heidke skill score: 0.116
true Heidke skill score: -0.130 true Heidke skill score: -0.147
Kuipers skill score: -0.385 Kuipers skill score: 0.116
true Kuipers skill score: -0.231 true Kuipers skill score: -0.132
threat score:
0.000 0.111 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.442 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.169 0.037 -0.072
equitable threat score:
-0.055 -0.049 -0.099
probability of detection:
0.000 0.111 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.742 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.477 1.000
samples: 13 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 23.21 %coverage: 100.00