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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199512-199602

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
14
1
15
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
15
1
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
14
1
15
6
17
17
40
1
0
0
1
7
31
18
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
82
6
88
0
6
0
6
6
0
0
6
6
88
6
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
25
2
27
11
30
30
71
2
0
0
2
13
55
32
100

hitrate: 0.059 hitrate: 0.304
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
15.00 0.07 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.14 1.29 0.06
Heidke skill score: -0.412 Heidke skill score: -0.045
true Heidke skill score: -0.054 true Heidke skill score: -0.232
Kuipers skill score: -0.412 Kuipers skill score: -0.045
true Kuipers skill score: -0.226 true Kuipers skill score: -0.228
threat score:
0.000 0.067 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.315 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.058 0.008 -0.030
equitable threat score:
-0.093 -0.161 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.000 0.067 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.548 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.575 1.000
samples: 17 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 30.36 %coverage: 100.00