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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199601-199603

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
4
0
9
1
2
0
3
3
1
0
4
9
7
0
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
4
0
9
10
21
12
43
3
1
0
4
18
26
12
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
31
25
0
56
6
13
0
19
19
6
0
25
56
44
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
7
0
16
18
38
21
77
5
2
0
7
32
46
21
100

hitrate: 0.438 hitrate: 0.464
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.43 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 1.65 0.33
Heidke skill score: 0.156 Heidke skill score: 0.196
true Heidke skill score: 0.065 true Heidke skill score: 0.071
Kuipers skill score: 0.156 Kuipers skill score: 0.196
true Kuipers skill score: 0.079 true Kuipers skill score: 0.064
threat score:
0.385 0.250 0.000
threat score:
0.227 0.438 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.008 0.103 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.110 0.037 -0.057
probability of detection:
0.556 0.286 0.000
probability of detection:
0.278 0.808 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.444 0.333 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.444 0.512 1.000
samples: 16 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 28.57 %coverage: 100.00