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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199601-199603

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
3
0
7
0
0
0
0
5
4
0
9
9
7
0
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
3
0
7
9
19
12
40
5
4
0
9
18
26
12
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
19
0
44
0
0
0
0
31
25
0
56
56
44
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
5
0
13
16
34
21
71
9
7
0
16
32
46
21
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.411
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.78 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.39 1.54 0.75
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.116
true Heidke skill score: 0.005 true Heidke skill score: 0.008
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.116
true Kuipers skill score: 0.008 true Kuipers skill score: 0.007
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.190 0.404 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.008 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.093 0.015 -0.101
probability of detection:
0.444 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.222 0.731 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.429 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.429 0.525 1.000
samples: 16 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 28.57 %coverage: 100.00