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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199601-199603

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
4
0
8
2
1
0
3
3
2
0
5
9
7
0
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
4
0
8
11
20
12
43
3
2
0
5
18
26
12
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
25
0
50
13
6
0
19
19
13
0
31
56
44
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
7
0
14
20
36
21
77
5
4
0
9
32
46
21
100

hitrate: 0.312 hitrate: 0.429
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.89 0.43 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.44 1.65 0.42
Heidke skill score: -0.031 Heidke skill score: 0.143
true Heidke skill score: -0.080 true Heidke skill score: 0.012
Kuipers skill score: -0.031 Kuipers skill score: 0.143
true Kuipers skill score: -0.103 true Kuipers skill score: 0.011
threat score:
0.308 0.111 0.000
threat score:
0.182 0.408 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.059 -0.041 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.074 0.001 -0.067
probability of detection:
0.444 0.143 0.000
probability of detection:
0.222 0.769 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.667 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.535 1.000
samples: 16 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 28.57 %coverage: 100.00