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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199602-199604

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
0
1
9
3
0
0
3
2
2
0
4
13
2
1
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
0
1
9
21
12
10
43
2
2
0
4
31
14
11
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
50
0
6
56
19
0
0
19
13
13
0
25
81
13
6
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
0
2
16
38
21
18
77
4
4
0
7
55
25
20
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.357
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.69 1.50 4.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.29 3.07 0.36
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.036
true Heidke skill score: 0.008 true Heidke skill score: 0.088
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.036
true Kuipers skill score: 0.012 true Kuipers skill score: 0.105
threat score:
0.571 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.250 0.267 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.103 -0.081 -0.053
equitable threat score:
0.112 0.036 -0.055
probability of detection:
0.615 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.258 0.857 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.111 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.111 0.721 1.000
samples: 16 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 28.57 %coverage: 100.00