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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199602-199604

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
0
1
9
3
1
1
5
5
2
2
9
16
3
4
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
0
1
9
18
12
8
38
5
2
2
9
31
14
11
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
35
0
4
39
13
4
4
22
22
9
9
39
70
13
17
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
0
2
16
32
21
14
68
9
4
4
16
55
25
20
100

hitrate: 0.478 hitrate: 0.393
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.56 1.67 2.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.29 2.71 0.82
Heidke skill score: 0.217 Heidke skill score: 0.089
true Heidke skill score: 0.174 true Heidke skill score: 0.145
Kuipers skill score: 0.217 Kuipers skill score: 0.089
true Kuipers skill score: 0.234 true Kuipers skill score: 0.173
threat score:
0.471 0.143 0.182
threat score:
0.250 0.300 0.111
equitable threat score:
0.162 0.055 0.046
equitable threat score:
0.112 0.082 0.014
probability of detection:
0.500 0.333 0.500
probability of detection:
0.258 0.857 0.182
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.111 0.800 0.778
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.111 0.684 0.778
samples: 23 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 41.07 %coverage: 100.00