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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199602-199604

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
1
4
13
4
0
0
4
4
2
0
6
16
3
4
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
1
4
13
19
11
7
37
4
2
0
6
31
14
11
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
35
4
17
57
17
0
0
17
17
9
0
26
70
13
17
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
2
7
23
34
20
13
66
7
4
0
11
55
25
20
100

hitrate: 0.348 hitrate: 0.339
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.81 1.33 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.42 2.64 0.55
Heidke skill score: 0.022 Heidke skill score: 0.009
true Heidke skill score: -0.211 true Heidke skill score: 0.036
Kuipers skill score: 0.022 Kuipers skill score: 0.009
true Kuipers skill score: -0.242 true Kuipers skill score: 0.041
threat score:
0.381 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.222 0.275 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.087 -0.081 -0.117
equitable threat score:
0.028 0.057 -0.074
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.258 0.786 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.385 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.385 0.703 1.000
samples: 23 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 41.07 %coverage: 100.00