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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199603-199605

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
4
5
13
5
1
0
6
1
0
0
1
10
5
5
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
4
5
13
28
7
7
42
1
0
0
1
33
11
12
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
20
25
65
25
5
0
30
5
0
0
5
50
25
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
7
9
23
50
13
13
75
2
0
0
2
59
20
21
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.196
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.30 1.20 0.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.39 3.82 0.08
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: -0.205
true Heidke skill score: -0.277 true Heidke skill score: -0.129
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: -0.205
true Kuipers skill score: -0.260 true Kuipers skill score: -0.161
threat score:
0.211 0.100 0.000
threat score:
0.095 0.152 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.200 -0.059 -0.043
equitable threat score:
-0.107 -0.033 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.400 0.200 0.000
probability of detection:
0.121 0.636 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.692 0.833 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.692 0.833 1.000
samples: 20 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 35.71 %coverage: 100.00