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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199603-199605

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
4
2
12
4
0
3
7
0
1
0
1
10
5
5
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
4
2
12
27
6
10
43
0
1
0
1
33
11
12
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
30
20
10
60
20
0
15
35
0
5
0
5
50
25
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
7
4
21
48
11
18
77
0
2
0
2
59
20
21
100

hitrate: 0.300 hitrate: 0.214
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.20 1.40 0.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.36 3.91 0.08
Heidke skill score: -0.050 Heidke skill score: -0.179
true Heidke skill score: -0.167 true Heidke skill score: -0.093
Kuipers skill score: -0.050 Kuipers skill score: -0.179
true Kuipers skill score: -0.160 true Kuipers skill score: -0.117
threat score:
0.375 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.154 0.125 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.171 -0.043
equitable threat score:
-0.034 -0.062 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.600 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.182 0.545 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.860 1.000
samples: 20 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 35.71 %coverage: 100.00